A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non- parametric Decoding

نویسندگان

  • Hsieh Fushing
  • Shu-Chun Chen
  • Travis J. Berge
  • Òscar Jordà
چکیده

This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specication of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from di erent economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER’’s own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology. ••

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تاریخ انتشار 2010